# Election forecasters lack historical data on how national mood drives each senate race, study shows

- Source: Phys.org
- Published: 2026-10-27T15:50:01+00:00
- Category: Local
- Original: https://phys.org/news/2026-10-election-lack-historical-national-mood.html
- Canonical: https://groundlevelnews.com/story/election-forecasters-lack-historical-data-on-how-national-mood-drives--d64aa0/

U.S. Senate races are increasingly decided by national forces rather than state-level politics or incumbency advantage. That makes election forecasts less certain than they appear, according to a new study in PS: Political Science & Politics by researchers at the University of California, Davis, and George Mason University.

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