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The U.S. Oil Sector’s Role in Restraining Prices

Source: NY Fed Liberty Street Economics · Nov 05, 2026 12:00 UTC

The Quick Take

The start of the Middle East conflict in early 2026 caused an unprecedented drop in global petroleum supply. In response, oil prices jumped—but not to unprecedentedly high levels. The U.S. oil sector was a key factor in moderating the shock. For one, its steady increases in drilling helped create a large oversupply in the global market before the conflict, making it less of a challenge to offset t

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