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Monday, October 26, 2026Updated 15:09 UTC

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Can we really predict the future? Over one million forecasts offer clues, not certainty

Source: Phys.org · Oct 26, 2026 13:20 UTC

Trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange with banks of monitors — File photo Carol M. Highsmith / Library of Congress · Public domain · Source

The Quick Take

Can crowds of people trading on what they believe will happen collectively predict the future? A new Tel Aviv University study of more than 1 million forecasts suggests that they often come remarkably close. But when it comes to certain events, from international conflicts to elections, the odds may tell a different story.

Read the full story at Phys.org

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